2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix picks

The first road course race of the season arrives with the highly anticipated 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in Austin, Texas. NASCAR fans and bettors are preparing for one of the most exciting road course events on the calendar. With Shane Van Gisbergen entering as the clear favorite, many bettors are searching for longshot value picks for the 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix.

The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, and road course specialists will look to capitalize on COTA’s technical layout. If you’re building your NASCAR betting card, this preview highlights the best value drivers and longshots for the 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix.

Shane Van Gisbergen Leads 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix Odds

Shane Van Gisbergen dominated road and street courses last season, winning five of his six starts in those formats. Because of that dominance, sportsbooks list him as the +115 favorite for the 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix.

While Van Gisbergen deserves to be favored, his short odds leave little betting value. In NASCAR betting, especially on road courses, unpredictability creates opportunities for longshots. With Van Gisbergen absorbing much of the betting attention, several elite drivers now carry longer-than-usual odds.

SportsLine Model Identifies 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix Longshots

Mike McClure’s proven SportsLine model has become a trusted source for NASCAR betting predictions. The advanced simulation model runs each race 10,000 times and has produced 29 winners since 2021, including 11 winners in 2025 alone.

For the 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix at COTA, the model highlights three strong longshot candidates:

Kyle Larson (22-1)
Chase Elliott (22-1)
Kyle Busch (35-1)

Let’s break down why these drivers offer betting value.

Kyle Larson (22-1): Road Course Upside at a Discount

Kyle Larson enters the 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix as a compelling value pick. The reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion has been one of the most consistent drivers over the last six seasons. He has finished no worse than seventh in the championship standings during that span.

Although Larson struggled on road and street courses last year, he showed his road course ability in 2024 with two victories in that format. That upside is difficult to ignore, especially at 22-1 odds.

Larson finished second in his COTA debut in 2021. While recent performances at the track have been inconsistent, the model views this number as inflated. Bettors rarely see Larson priced this high on talent alone, making him one of the top 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix longshot picks.

Chase Elliott (22-1): Proven COTA Performer

Chase Elliott remains one of the strongest road course racers in the NASCAR Cup Series. The 2020 Cup Series champion has consistently delivered strong results on technical layouts like Circuit of the Americas.

Elliott is currently third in the Cup standings through three races this season and already has a top-five finish. Historically, he thrives at COTA:

Winner in his 2021 COTA debut
Fourth-place finish in last year’s spring race
Three top-five finishes in four career starts at the track

Elliott also owns a top-10 average career finish on road and street courses. Given his strong track history and road course skill set, 22-1 odds offer significant value for the 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix.

Kyle Busch (35-1): Veteran Value at COTA

Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 63 NASCAR Cup Series wins. While he hasn’t yet captured a victory at Circuit of the Americas, his consistency there stands out.

In five career COTA starts, Busch has:

Four top-10 finishes
A second-place result in 2023
A fifth-place finish last season

Over his last three COTA races, Busch has averaged a 5.3 finishing position — one of the best marks among active drivers. With sportsbooks offering him at 35-1, he presents one of the most attractive longshot bets in the 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix field.

Given his road course experience and recent COTA form, Busch could outperform expectations and compete for a podium finish.

2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix Betting Strategy

Road course races in NASCAR often produce surprises due to pit strategy, cautions, and braking precision. While Shane Van Gisbergen is the clear favorite, betting value typically lies with experienced drivers at longer odds.

For the 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix at COTA, bettors should consider: