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Stefanos Tsitsipas has reached the Round of 16 at the 2026 Mutua Madrid Open, but his season has been far from smooth. The former world number three has struggled with form and consistency, causing his ATP ranking to drop significantly. Still, his recent straight-set wins over Alexander Bublik and Daniel Merida show signs of recovery.
Tsitsipas recently admitted that he needs to improve one key part of his game to return to the top level. He explained that his “serve plus one” strategy was once one of the strongest parts of his tennis. That aggressive first-shot pattern helped him beat top players and win big matches on the ATP Tour.
Serve Plus One Remains the Key for Tsitsipas
Speaking about his current struggles, Tsitsipas said he feels that his confidence in controlling points after the serve has dropped. He believes this has affected his overall performance. His goal is to fix those details and bring back the aggressive mindset that made him one of the best players in the world.
Madrid’s fast clay courts can help his style. His strong serve and powerful forehand are effective in these conditions. However, he now faces a difficult test against one of the strongest clay-court players on tour.
Casper Ruud Looks Strong as Defending Champion
Casper Ruud enters this match with excellent momentum. The defending Madrid Open champion has looked dominant so far this week. He crushed Jaume Munar in his opening match and followed that with another straight-set win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Ruud’s heavy topspin forehand is one of the most dangerous weapons on clay. It allows him to control rallies and expose weaker backhands. Against Tsitsipas, that tactic could be especially important because the Greek star’s one-handed backhand often struggles under pressure.
Many analysts believe Ruud has the edge in this matchup, especially if his calf injury does not create any problems during the match.
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Head-to-Head Record Favors Ruud Slightly
The head-to-head battle between Tsitsipas and Ruud is very close. Ruud leads the overall record with three wins from five ATP Tour meetings. Even more importantly, two of those wins came on clay courts, including a straight-set victory in Madrid back in 2021.
Tsitsipas has beaten Ruud at Masters events before, including wins at the Monte-Carlo Masters and the Canadian Open. However, clay remains Ruud’s best surface, and that gives the Norwegian an important advantage in this Round of 16 clash.
This will be their first ATP Tour meeting in more than two years, which adds more excitement to the contest.
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Best Betting Picks for Madrid Open Tuesday
Tennis betting experts strongly favor Ruud in this match. While some bettors are avoiding the full game handicap, many still see value in backing the Norwegian to win.
One of the most popular picks is Casper Ruud -3.5 games handicap. With his strong clay form and confident performances this week, this option offers solid value for bettors.
Another recommended option is a parlay with Ruud moneyline and Rafael Jodar moneyline against Vit Kopriva. Jodar is also in excellent form after impressive wins over Alex de Minaur and Joao Fonseca, making him a strong second leg for the parlay.
Experts also like Francisco Cerundolo -3.5 games against Alexander Blockx, as the Argentine looks fresher and more stable after two straight-set wins.
Final Prediction for Tsitsipas vs Ruud
Tsitsipas is showing signs of improvement, but this match may come too soon against such a strong clay specialist. Ruud looks sharper, more confident, and better suited to the Madrid conditions right now.
If Tsitsipas can rediscover his serve-plus-one dominance, he can push this match deep. Still, based on current form, Ruud remains the stronger pick.
Expect a competitive battle, but the defending champion should have enough quality to move into the quarter-finals.
